Letters From Little Rock

PITTSBURGH (15-5) 21 Seattle (15-4) 10:

I can’t say that was as good a game as I expected. Maybe I’ve been spoiled by the last couple of Super Bowls, but I did not anticipate such a sloppy game. I also didn’t expect the level of officiating to remain as poor as it was during the playoffs. I am not an historian of officiating, but I can’t recall ever seeing so many egregious calls in one playoff season. Pittsburgh was the big beneficiary during the super Bowl. I know the rule on offensive interference, but to me if Jackson pushed off in the end zone, then none of Michael Irvin’s career receptions should count. As push offs go, this was pretty piddling. As if that wasn’t enough they compounded that with Roethlisberger’s phantom touchdown and the blocking below the waist penalty called on Matt Hasselbeck as he made a tackle on an interception return. All in all not a good example of officiating.

I was further surprised that Big Ben did not have a very good day. A lot of people will attribute that to nerves and the travails of a young quarterback, but they would be wrong. The Seahawks defense is a very good unit and they did a great job for most of the Super Bowl. Unfortunately two busted plays are what cost the Seahawks the title. Fast Willie Parker and Hines Ward are players that have to be accounted for on every play and there are no excuses for the breakdowns that allowed two plays to account for 118 yards of the Steelers’ offensive production. The Seahawks know that they have only themselves to blame. Normally when you control the time of possession and win the turnover battle you win the ballgame, but the Seahawks managed to shoot themselves in the foot every step along the way. From Hasselbeck’s interception to the amazing clock mismanagement at the end of the game, the Seahawks showed a lack of composure. You hate to say a team lost a game more so than that the other team won it, but the Steelers’ looked pretty uneven and very shaky themselves right off the bat. I guess it boils down to what I thought it would; the Steelers’ had several gut checks this season, and the Seahawks had a pretty easy time of it. We usually think that cruising in the regular season is a pretty good indicator of post season success, but after seeing what became of the Indianapolis Colts and the Seattle Seahawks this year, I’m not sure it isn’t better to follow the harder path. It certainly suits their character better than 15-1.

I have a lot of confidence that the Steelers will make it back to the Super Bowl with Big Ben, but I’m not sure I don’t like the Seahawks chances to get back next season better. The Steelers are going to be in a little bit of a transition in the backfield, and they may be losing their offensive coordinator as well. Ken Whisenhunt is going to interview for the Raiders’ vacant position and unless the Steelers are smart enough to throw head coaching money at him to keep him in place they could very well lose him. If I were in a position to decide such things I think I would go ahead and name him my assistant head coach and give him a boat load of money. Bill Cowher has already been in place for fourteen seasons and as much as I believe the Rooneys would like to keep him forever, I can’t imagine him lasting any longer than Rothelisberger does. Basically, barring any unforeseen injuries, I think Cowher is on his last starting quarterback. Whatever successs they have together will in part be due to Whisenhunt’s presence. I’m on t saying that they can’t win without him, only that it will be much easier if they maintain the continuity that they have been making such a big deal about lately. I would imagine that the example of the Redskins’ coaching staff would be under pretty close scrutiny around the league right now. They have several former head coaches on their staff and have locked up their defensive coordinator with a long term contract and the promise he will be the next head coach. I think that’s the sort of deal that makes a lot of sense for the Steelers as well.

Pittsburgh (14-5) Seattle (15-3):

I’ve been taking a little time off the last couple of weeks and I very nearly let the Super Bowl sneak up on me without posting my predictions. That’s one of the things that I hate most about the dead week in between the Conference Championship games; if you’re not a media junky it allows you to forget about the game altogether. As far as I’m concerned it breaks the rhythm of the season in such a way that the game becomes somewhat anticlimactic. The game itself may prove to be a classic, but the interruptus reduces the potential enjoyment for me. Basically, the game that I look forward to all year, I no longer look forward to after the long delay between games. Whining aside, I expect this to be a very good game.

I recall reading an article at the time of the Green Bay New/England Super Bowl that boiled the argument down to if everything else is equal you go with the better quarterback. I think this is a similar matchup. That’s why I think you have to go with Pittsburgh. There’s nothing about the Seahawks that screams loser to me, but there’s nothing about them that screams winner to me either. Don’t misunderstand me these are two very good football teams, but the Steelers are a little closer to being a great team than the Seahawks are. Plus they have Ben Roethlisberger. There have been a few comparisons made between Big Ben and Dan Marino largely due to the fact that he is playing in a Super Bowl at such an early age. I really don’t think there is any comparison; Ben Roethlisberger is a better quarterback than Dan Marino. I think it goes without saying that he is also a better quarterback than Matt Hasselbeck. I think Hasselbeck has had a very good season and should continue to improve, but he is a cog in a very good system and I think a lot of pretty good quarterbacks could fill his role without any drop-off in production. I don’t think you can necessarily say that about the Steelers’s system. The conventional wisdom is that it is easier to play quarterback in a run heavy scheme. I’m not sure that that is necessarily true. It is definitely easier to play quarterback if your team has an effective running game, but if you only get to throw the ball fifteen times per game there is a greater premium on completions. That’s partly because traditional run first teams only throw on third and long, against nickel and dime packages to boot. Big Ben has been very efficient in obvious passing situations and that makes him that much more effective now that the Steelers are mixing in more passing plays. That’s probably the biggest factor that leads me to believe that the Steelers will win.

It isn’t just the fact that I think Ben Roethlisberger is a better quarterback than Matt Hasselbeck; it has to do with the fact that the Steelers have answered the bell all season long and the Seahawks really haven’t had a gut check. If the Seahawks find themselves down early, I think they will be much better equipped to stick to their game plan and offensive style in an attempt to comeback than Denver or Indianapolis were, but I don’t think they will be quite as well prepared to do so mentally. This has been the Seahawks best season in years and they should not be disheartened by a loss to a potentially great Steelers team, but there is a possibility that a loss will cause them to descend in to the same kind of dissension that troubled them over the previous two seasons if they don’t make a pretty good showing. The group that will probably come in for the biggest scrutiny is the Seahawks’ secondary. All due respect to Indianapolis the Steelers have the most depth at receiver and they should be able to get open all day long if the Steelers remember that they have a heck of a good tight end to keep the safeties honest. I have a feeling that Heath Miller could very well wind up with a couple of touchdowns and he might even be my dark horse pick for MVP.

Seattle has a chance in the game, but it isn’t the best chance I’ve ever seen. I think they might be able to play a little hurry up and keep favorable matchups on the field. When you say hurry up offense you usually think of a passing attack, but the Seahawks may be able to do more by isolating the Steelers’ linebackers and running at the same point in a hurry up set rather than trying to hit on a bomb against a gassed secondary. At least that’s what I would do if I had Shaun Alexander in my backfield.

Even with the league MVP getting his share of the work, my pick is Steelers 35 Seahawks 24.

PITTSBURGH (14-5) 34 Denver (14-4) 17:

That’s the Jake Plummer I remember. I don’t wish failure on anybody, and if you get right down to it, four turnovers in a football game isn’t much of a failure in the grand scheme of things, but for a team that hadn’t lost at home all season that was a pretty big whiff. He probably is still the Broncos’ best option at quarterback, but at this point he’s had about as many second chances as they expended on Brian Griese so you really can’t say that his name is written in stone on the Broncos’ depth chart. The way the Steelers are playing right now it shouldn’t have come as any surprise to see Jake Plummer revert to form. The vaunted Denver running game was not really neutralized, but it was held in check when it was important; on first and second down. Denver was only 5-11 on third down. Basically the game plan against Plummer is the same as it’s always been slow the rush, put him in third and long and see if he is patient enough to throw underneath. It just throws him off and frustrates him. He isn’t an easy quarterback to rattle with a pass rush since he is mobile and more than tough enough to take a hit, but as long as he is willing to show frustration and a lack of discipline in the face of a good defense he’s going to lose games of this type. Of course a lot of the Broncos’ misfires were the result of very good football on the part of the Steelers. The Steelers’ defense is probably a little faster than we thought during the season, but more than that they are well coached. Even though some of their players have lost a step in the last couple of years, they are always in the correct position. Just being in the right place at the right time can make a huge difference for a defense like this; as many different zone blitzes and coverages as they call just one player making a mistake can cost them a touchdown. We hear a lot of talk about how brilliant the Patriots’ coaching staff is at disguising schemes and coming at the quarterback from undefended angles. After what they have done to Peyton Manning and Jake Plummer the last two weeks, I’d say the Steelers’ defensive coaches are doing at least as good a job as the Patriots’.

SEATTLE (15-3) 34 Carolina (13-6) 14:

Losing Nick Goings in the first quarter was probably not the only reason the Panthers lost, but it seemed to be one of the factors in their playing in a state of near panic. Jake Delhomme in particular did not seem to lose his butterflies until the game was already well out of hand. In all fairness to Jamal Robertson who replaced Goings at running back, he did not play poorly. But the Panthers only ran him four times. He also proved to be a decent option out of the backfield. I’m not sure how you expect to beat anybody if you narrow your offensive options down to “let’s find a way to get the ball to Steve Smith.” There was just too much balance on the other side of the field for that type of “game plan” to work. Seattle is not perceived as being the same kind of threat as the AFC’s top seed was, but they look to be in pretty good shape to make this a very closely contested Super Bowl. The general consensus was that they didn’t have much of a defense, but the defense was the dominant force in the game. I don’t know how many people would say that their defense outclasses that of the Chicago Bears, but it pretty clearly has reached a level of play that puts them on an even footing with anybody. Carolina did not prove to be as big of a test as we anticipated, but you can’t criticize the Seahawks for playing against the team that showed up. You hate to have to insert your fourth string running back in a playoff game, but those are the breaks. Carolina has a better than average core group of players, but they don’t have any depth at receiver. At least they don’t recognize any depth at receiver. I’m not sure that Delhomme’s reliance on Steve Smith isn’t the fatal flaw in their scheme. Judging from what Drew Carter did on the few occasions he got him the ball, and how well Jamal Robertson operated out of the backfield I would say they do have other options if they just look for them. Sometime this off-season they are either going to have to import another top notch receiver or convince Jake Delhomme he doesn’t have to key on one and only one receiver. He had a similar focus on Muhsin Muhammad as well during their last playoff run.

Early thoughts on the Super Bowl:

One thing that struck me about this week’s games is that despite the Super Bowl experience of the coaches, to a man they have the whiff of failure lingering about them. Bill Cowher and John Fox have both lost their only Super Bowl appearances and Mike Holmgren and Mike Shanahan have both seen recent playoff failures tarnish their reputations as coaching Geniuses. Shanahan at least can say he hasn’t lost a Super Bowl. That’s probably not much comfort right now, but either Holmgren or Bill Cowher is going to go to the Super Bowl only to see his reputation and legacy diminished in the eyes of the fans and media by a loss. It’s not fair, but that’s the way it is. Both of their teams have been know for underachieving in the playoffs recently. One of them is going to win this game and just about cement a trip to the hall of fame and the other is going to find himself on the long list of also-rans. Right now my money is on Bill Cowher to cement his reputation. I think the Seahawks are in pretty good position to have continued success for a number of years, but as they stand I think the Steelers have the better quarterback and may be in a position to return to the Super Bowl multiple times with Big Ben behind center. He isn’t the prototypical pro bowl pretty boy quarterback with the flashy stats, but his yards per attempt has been over 8 all season and I don’t see the Seahawks having as much success in rattling him as they did Jake Delhomme. I’ve got two weeks to make up my mind, but I’m leaning towards the Steelers right now.

So far I’m 7-3 picking the playoffs. I wonder why it gets so much easier when the regular season ends?

Pittsburgh (13-5) at Denver (14-3):

I haven’t had much luck picking against the Broncos this season. I guess it was a lingering sense of mistrust owing to the disastrous opening day loss to Miami. As bad as they looked at that time I would never have expected them to win more than six or seven games. I think there is a pretty good chance they will look about that bad again this weekend. I don’t think that the Broncos are quite as vulnerable to the Steelers’ pass rush since Jake Plummer is a fairly mobile quarterback and he’s not going to be making as many phantom audibles as Peyton Manning did. I do think the running game is going to be held in check somewhat by both defenses, but I think the Broncos are more susceptible to pressure if they get Plummer in a lot of third and long situations. Not that their defense is not capable of slowing down Big Ben and his receivers as well, it’s just that the Steelers are more accustomed to max protect sets and I think will follow last week’s pass-happy attack with more of the same at least in the opening couple of drives. I doubt that this will be a big scoring game, but then again I thought that the Bears/Panthers game would be low scoring and it turned out to be the highest scoring game of the weekend. Who knew? My best guess is that three touchdowns will win the game. I guess I am also rooting for Jerome Bettis to get to play in a Super Bowl. he is pretty clearly the best big back that has ever played in the NFL, it would be a shame if he didn’t get to perform on that stage even if he isn’t a feature back anymore.

Carolina (13-5) at Seattle (14-3):

I hesitate to say that it’s a good thing that the Panthers lost their starting running back, but at least for the match-up with the Seahawks I think Goings is a better player at this point. That’s partly just because he is healthier, but it’s also because he has more mobility than Foster. Foster has always struck me as a pretty decent pounder, someone who will burst through the hole, make contact with a defender and then drive him as far as he can, but he isn’t the kind of back that can avoid contact or run through it. Nick goings is. He also seems to run with a certain amount of anger towards the defense. Something about that just seems to fit the personality of the team better than Foster’s plodding methodical style. Seattle is possibly going to demonstrate to the world that it isn’t always a good thing to have a starting running back in the game. After the concussion he suffered last week I hope the Seahawks at least have the decency to limit his caries. I understand that he is a great player in the middle of his best season and you want him to have the opportunity to win or lose on the field, but his brain just got sloshed around in his head pretty violently and it doesn’t make any sense to expose him to the kind of punishment he will get in this ball game. The big danger for the Seahawks is that he will take a few good licks get just a little fuzzy and continue playing. It is entirely possible he could play the entire game in a state of diminished capacity and not realize it. That’s one of the main reasons I’m picking Carolina to beat the Seahawks.

For a fleeting moment there it looked like the Steelers and Colts would be going to sudden death overtime. Why? A number of people, most notably King Kaufmann of Salon.Com, have remarked on how unfair it is for a tie contest to basically be won by the coin toss. I have heard a number of good suggestions, most of which would involve eliminating the field goal in overtime or in requiring that the person kicking the field goal actually have participated on the preceding offensive play. Some even advocate replacing the pro system with the college overtime system. I have a less radical and I think more equitable solution; play a complete overtime period. That’s right, the part I have a problem with isn’t the placekicking or the coin tossing necessarily, but I do have a problem with the first team that scores winning.

Let’s take a look at the college system for a moment and consider what I hate most about it. If you play a good tight defensive game and are tied at, for instance, 21. How badly skewed will your stats be by let’s say three overtimes? Well that would probably mean someone would after three possessions wind up with 42 points on the board. This is a pretty quick way to erode season scoring records and inflate otherwise crummy passing stats, since they begin overtime in field goal position most teams will at least take a shot at the end zone regardless of how much faith they have in scoring. I can’t imagine the kinds of numbers players like Peyton Manning and Tom Brady could put up if a similar system were instituted in the pros. Sure the game evolves and the rules change, but there’s no reason to make the record books obsolete.

For all the complaints about the NFL’s sudden death overtime, people forget how big of an improvement over the previous system it was when first introduced. The previous system of course allowed for tie games even in the championship. I’m not sure why anybody went along with the idea of a sudden death format in the first place. On the face of it, it isn’t really fair, though to be honest it can be fairly exciting. It probably just stuck since it was the first idea they came up with and the rules weren’t tinkered with as much back then. For the most part the sudden death overtime is a good thing, as it makes the standings easier to figure and the playoff tiebreakers somewhat simpler in practice. I think it would be even more exciting if they had to actually play to win though. Most coaches are in full “play-not-to-lose” mode by the time overtime arrives and play a modified prevent almost the entire overtime. Of course that’s one of the big reasons that the teams that win the toss usually go on to win the game, but still if you weren’t concerned with immediate elimination would you not play defense more aggressively?

For the record my proposed overtime rules are as follows:

1. Overtime continues play from the last spot of the ball in the fourth quarter. They don’t kick off to start every quarter, no reason to kick off for overtime. I know some people would regard it as the end of a half, but I think it is more properly considered part of the second half and see no reason to begin the new period with a coin toss or kickoff.
2. All clock rules follow the rules of the last two minutes of the ball game.
3. One extra timeout per team.
4. Play lasts for a full fifteen minutes.

What’s not to like? I can understand that a lot of coaches would hate to have their teams exhausted by playing a full extra quarter, but they always have the option of winning in regulation don’t they?

SEATTLE (14-3) 20 Washington (11-7) 10 :

Washington just ran out of steam and never really threatened the Seahawks. While Shaun Alexander’s loss was a factor in the scoring, it really did not hurt the Seahawks at all. For one thing they still ran the ball effectively and for another Darrell Jackson looked like a world class receiver all of a sudden. Looking at Washington, they really need to address the quarterback situation and invest in one more decent receiver and then they will be set. It is questionable whether or not they will anoint Jason Campbell as the starter heading into training camp, but if they want to get to the Super Bowl while they still have a defense that is of a caliber to do so they need to consider bringing in a free agent who is a little less prone to disappear for weeks at a time than Brunell is. When he is on, he is still a decent quarterback, but he is only really going to be on for about ten games out of the season and that just isn’t enough.

Seattle will have their hands full against the Panthers but it helps that they got to warm up by playing against the Redskins’ defense. They aren’t really similar in style, but they are similar in intensity and I think that that helps more than anything. It took them a while to get started against the Redskins and as Carolina showed the Bears on the second play of the game, the Panthers will test you early and often. Hasselbeck may not have the playoff experience that Jake Delhomme has, but he is playing in a much more balanced passing scheme. Delhomme is going to be in a world of hurt if the Seahawks can keep Steve Smith covered. Hasselbeck has more options to throw to. The other thing I think has been kept under the radar somewhat is the quality of the Seahawks’ defense. They only gave up 16 points per game in the regular season and won eleven games in a row. How exactly would you underrate these guys?

DENVER (14-3) 27 New England (11-7) 13:

I suppose that this game qualifies as Tom Brady’s biggest playoff disappointment. Of course, it is also his only playoff disappointment so let’s keep things in perspective. I’ve read several articles that are eulogizing the Patriots’ “dynasty”. I’m not sure what would indicate that they aren’t just a few healthy players from returning to the playoffs against next season. Clearly they need a better solution at running back, they have a couple of issues in the secondary, but basically all they need is to have everybody on the field at the same time. Has Brady exhausted his playoff potential in only his fifth season? Of course not. Think about it; it’s taken Jake Plummer nine years to get this far. And he has apparently made it to the big time. I am always skeptical of a player’s ability to reinvent himself late in his career, but it does happen. Somehow he has finally learned that he doesn’t have to be entirely responsible for winning and losing and it has made him a much better quarterback. The big story in this game was turnovers. It is completely unlike the Patriots to make mental mistakes and when they did it cost them the chance to play for the championship. They can’t make many excuses for this loss since it was pretty clearly a case of Denver beating them in all phases of the game, but the should stop and think about how many opportunities they let slip away in this one. I’m not sure Denver isn’t playing the most complete game of any team left in the playoffs right now.

PITTSBURGH (13-5) 21 Indianapolis (14-3) 16:

Why don’t teams play Indianapolis this way in the regular season? The blueprint has been in place for quite a few years now. I have a certain sentimental desire to see Bettis get to play in a Super Bowl, but if he doesn’t make it he is still the best big back I think I can recall. It would have been a real shame if his last play was the uncharacteristic fumble on the goal line. I’m not sure what the going rate for running backs is these days, but in thirteen years Bettis has only lost 22 fumbles. And what a way for the Colts to lose. Granted they finally made a game of it, but it was too little too late, and for what it’s worth, I think we just saw the end of the Colts as a legitimate contender. At least I’m fairly certain we saw the end of this particular group of players. It doesn’t help that your quarterback who normally is the model of composure feels comfortable not just sticking a needle in Mike Vanderjagt, but also calling out his offensive line for protection problems. Vanderjagt and Manning have had issues before, but I’m not sure wide right isn’t going to Vanderjagt’s ticket out of town. That wasn’t just a miss it was an ugly miss. It was about as far off the mark as you can get without intentionally missing. I think a lot of people might overlook the sniping at the kicker since kickers are always getting blamed for things like that, but the criticism of the offensive line really showed a lack of maturity. Going into next season the Colts are facing a lot of personnel issues and Manning’s crummy attitude after the loss may exacerbate those. For one thing we know James may not be back. At this point Dominic Rhodes is unfortunately not the starting option he might have been three years ago. For another it seems certain that the Colts will lose a good younger receiver and hang on to Marvin Harrison for another year. I know Harrison is a great receiver, but he and Manning should both be restructuring their contracts to insure that their third and fourth options decide to stick around. Harrison looked real slow at times this season. He still has the ability to create his own space in a defense and to make something happen after the catch, but he really seems to be choosing his spots now. A couple of years ago he played every down like it was going for six and this year he took a lot of plays off. Then there is the question of whether or not Tony Dungy feels like putting himself through this anymore. It’s not fair to question his desire to return at this point, but at some point in the next couple of months it is a question he’s going to have to answer for himself.

While we’re talking about quarterbacks and such, I think Big Ben is in line for Most Improved Playoff Player if there is such an award. He really played smart ball and for a fellow who is not as nimble as some quarterbacks in the league, he made a hell of a game saving tackle on Bettis fumble. I don’t know why, but he’s a winner. Sometimes it’s as simple as that. That’s one reason I was surprised that the Bears went with Grossman over Orton. Some guys like Tom Brady, and Big Ben may not be the gaudiest of fellows, but they make all of the little plays and let the big plays take care of themselves. That’s really all this game came down to. Indianapolis looked too deep and wound up at the bottom of the pool. I’m not sure the Steelers are going to be able to match up with the Broncos’ defense, but I doubt that they will let it become a high scoring game either. I keep thinking that the Steelers secondary is a little slow, but against what is supposed to be a fast receiving corps in Indianapolis they were a step ahead all day long.

CAROLINA (13-5) 29 Chicago (11-6) 21:

What in the world were the Bears thinking? How in the world do you take a quarterback who has only played six quarters of the season and ask him to throw forty times? This was not the Bears finest moment by a long shot. The funny thing is that while Grossman eventually looked like he might make a decent NFL quarterback in this game Thomas Jones was running the ball well every chance he got. I understand going deep a few times early to make them respect the pass and I think they have found their big name receiver in Bernard Berrian. He is not a polished player yet, but he is very fast and showed that he can take a hit and hang on to the ball. He caught one on the two late in the game and took the hardest shot I’ve seen in these playoffs and hung on to the ball. He is precisely the kind of threat that they need to compliment Muhsin Muhammad. The only real downside to the Loss is that the Panthers have exposed several flaws in the Bears defense and more importantly showed the rest of the NFL the major deficiencies in Rex Grossman’s game. When the commentators quoted the Panther’s defensive coordinator as saying it looked to him like Grossman through to an area more so than to a receiver it sounded like typical pregame fluff, but as it turned out they worked hard at coaxing him into releasing the ball early and into traffic. They only got one interception off of him, but if they had paid a little bit more attention they could have had three. The bottom line is that the Bears are going to have to make a lot of improvements just to stay in contention for the playoffs next year.

Carolina is going to have to be more disciplined to win against Seattle, but I am leaning towards them. It makes a difference whether or not Shaun Alexander returns and whether or not he is at full strength. Thomas Jones averaged four yards per carry against them in a game in which the run was almost an afterthought to the Bears. It will be an emphatic part of the Seahawks game plan and even without Alexander they managed to run well against the Redskins. What they will not be able to do is hand the Seahawks first downs on penalty. They seemed to have a little trouble with the crowd noise at times in the second half. No offense to Chicago fans, but the Seahawks’ crowd will be much more of a factor in a close game. On the other hand they may see even more of Steve Smith than the Bears did.

This week 3-1
Playoffs 6-2

Washington (11-6) at SEATTLE (13-3):

This season is probably the best window of opportunity that the Seahawks have ever had. Carolina has more playoff experience and Steve Smith, Chicago has a better defense and either one should make for an entertaining opponent in the NFC Championship game. First they have to knock off the team that has the second best defense in the NFC and probably the second most explosive receiver in the NFC in Santana Moss. I think the Redskins had a pretty good run this year and showed that they can put together some pretty gutsy performances when the situation allows. They kind of remind me of the Oakland Raiders back in the days of Jim Plunket. All they needed was an opportunity in the fourth quarter and they would pull themselves together and score what they needed. If you squint real hard you can kind of equate Mark Brunell and Santana Moss with Jim Plunket and Cliff Branch. The only difference is that the Redskins used up all the luck one team should be allowed last week and will have an extremely difficult time playing in Seattle. Seattle may not quite be as raucous as Kansas City and may not be quite as threatening as Philly or Oakland, but it is definitely a vocal crowd. I think the Redskins defense will keep this game close in the first half, but I think the Redskins are a fatigued team, mentally and physically, and in the second half I expect the Seahawks to open up a big lead.

NEW ENGLAND (11-6) at Denver (13-3):

Interestingly enough one of my coworkers has assured me not only that the Patriots will lose, but that Tom Brady will throw three picks. My opinion is that the Broncos will lose and Plummer will throw at least three picks, maybe more. If this turns in to a tit for tat game with both teams scoring regularly I am going to pick the Patriots to win it on a field goal in the end just like they always seem to do. If it turns into a defensive struggle my pick is the same. I just don’t think the Patriots run defense is going to give up a big day to the Broncos. My feeling is that we will see Brady go deep to Deion Branch down the left sideline on their first drive, probably about the time they pass their own thirty-five yard line.

PITTSBURGH (12-5) at Indianapolis (14-2):

I hate to keep reminding myself how many times I picked against the Colts this season since it just reminds me how often I was wrong. I guess I’m taking a pretty big chance on being wrong again, but I’m taking the Steelers to win by about ten. I know they lost a laugher to the Colts last time they played, but this is not the same Steelers team. Or the same Colts team. The Steelers will follow the blueprint that teams have followed in beating the Colts in the past; slow the run and beat up the receivers as they come off the line of scrimmage. If you disrupt the timing between Manning and his receivers he becomes hesitant and when he starts thinking twice he becomes vulnerable to mental mistakes. Is Manning a great quarterback? Certainly. Can he be beaten in the playoffs? Absolutely.

CAROLINA (12-5) at Chicago (11-5):

Both teams are playing outstanding defense at the moment. Carolina has the better offense, but I think it is their defense that will carry the day. I have a feeling that Rex Grossman is not going to look like the savior of the franchise in this game. His stats are about as ordinary as they come and at some point in this game the Bears will have to move the football the length of the field and they won’t be able to. Carolina will. This is probably going to be a game that two touchdowns will win, but they may not come until late; both of these defenses are still getting better week to week.

CAROLINA 23 NY Giants 0:

I really didn’t expect Carolina to show up and play like that. The story of the game seems to be Tiki Barber 13 rushes 41 yards. I really expected Tiki Barber to have about 100 yards and take the heat off Eli Manning. It seems that this happens every time I fail to pick the Panthers because they look lethargic or because I think they may be facing unfavorable match-ups. It looks like they will go to Chicago and have a pretty good shot at avenging their earlier loss to them. That loss in week eleven was the coming out party for the Chicago bears. Sure, they were on a five game win streak, but they hadn’t beaten any teams you’d consider playoff contenders in that stretch. After stifling the Panthers for a 13-3 win, people started to take the Bears seriously. I’m sure the Panthers wouldn’t admit to having overlooked the Bears in their first match-up, but it would be hard to imagine a more lethargic effort from the Panthers.

The Giants are going to face a lot of heat in the New York press for their poor performance, but in all fairness, no one should have expected to get an eleven win season out of this team. Despite Eli Manning’s poor performance in this game, he is ahead of schedule. Next year is only going to be his third year as a starter in the NFL and that is usually about how long it takes to find out if you’ve got a legit starter or not. Check out Drew Brees and Carson Palmer for some other examples of what I’m talking about. And honestly, if you want some reason to have a little hope for next season, check out the difference between Ben Roethlisberger’s performance in last year’s playoffs and his performance in this year’s.

PITTSBURGH 31 Cincinnati 17

It’s hard to believe that this is Bill Cowher’s first road playoff win in fourteen years as the head coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers. I’m not sure that they aren’t going to go to Indy and get his second. The one thing that the Steelers have going for them in that game is that they have a healthy Roethlisberger this time around. That and maybe the defense won’t be in a fugue state on the first play of this game. It’s a shame that we didn’t get to see Carson Palmer instead of Jon Kitna. I always hate to see a guy get hurt like that early in the game, not just because it’s crummy for him and his team but because it always makes people wonder if it was intentional. I can’t imagine someone on Cowher’s team taking a shot at someone’s knee, but they had to be somewhat relieved to see Kitna enter the game. I’m not altogether certain that Kitna didn’t get dinged up. He certainly seemed to play worse and worse as the game wore on.

WASHINGTON 17 Tampa Bay 10

I picked the Redskins, but I never would have if I’d known how poorly they would play. I can’t imagine how they managed to pull off the win with only 120 yards of offense. Washington is another team that is about a year ahead of schedule. They are really going to be good when they are helmed by a quarterback on the rise instead of a guy who’s on his last cup of coffee. The really unfortunate thing in all of this is that Jon Gruden will have one more excuse to tinker with his quarterbacks instead of following through on the promise that Chris Simms has shown this season. It is going to be hard for Simms to escape his somewhat spotty legacy at Texas, and heaven help him the first time he plays Vince Young, but he has grown dramatically in just his first season as a starter. He is pretty clearly a better athlete than his father was, and he has shown a lot of the same toughness. His touchdown run was the kind of play his father would rarely if ever have made, but it was a play born out of the same kind of grit he routinely displayed.

NEW ENGLAND 28 Jacksonville 3

You had to see this coming. There was a moment or two in the first half when it looked like this would turn out to be a game, but the Jaguars went in at halftime and came out with basically no solutions for the questions the Patriots had posed in the first half, and inexplicably stuck with Leftwich until he apparently banged up his ankle. I just don’t see how you bench a guy like Garrard who had gone 5-1 with the only loss coming at the hands of Indianapolis is pretty plainly a better fit for the jaguars than Leftwich ever will be. The Jaguars defense did a creditable job up until the third quarter when they forgot how to tackle long enough to give up a 63 yard touchdown to Ben Watson. If you have three players attempt to make a tackle for a loss only to see your team give up a long touchdown it’s hard not to feel like you gave the game away, but Watson made a great individual effort and the Jaguars were beaten. They just aren’t in the same league as the top teams in the AFC right now.

Did you notice that three out of four road teams won?

Amazingly I also picked three out of four games. I only missed the Panthers over the Giants. Never saw that one coming.

In a move that surprises nobody Vince Young has declared for the NFL Draft. The only real question about his draft status is whether or not someone with draft picks to spare will rescue him from the clutches of Houston or New Orleans. It’s possible that Houston will forego the number one pick in exchange for a number of draft picks, but it remains to be seen whether or not they decide to stick with David Carr as their quarterback or not. Even if they decided to bring in another veteran to play the position next year, Vince Young would be a solid pick to make. I really don’t think they will blow the pick on another guy who would have to be brought along slowly like Leinart or a back like Reggie Bush that might not be on the field for more than a third of your offensive plays. I think on the basis of the Rose Bowl Performances of these players the one player who might knock Young out of the top spot is LenDale White. The only problem with him is the fact that a number of teams have demonstrated that a decent offensive line can produce good numbers with a third round back in the NFL and a better than average line like Denver’s or Atlanta’s can pretty much dominate regardless of who you put in the backfield.

My opinion is that Houston would be better off trading the number one pick and building through depth because they just aren’t that bad athletically. This season was one of poor decisions all the way around on both sides of the ball, and it’s hard to fault the players for that. The other reason I lean towards that position is that the Texans brought in Dan Reeves to look things over and make some recommendations; based on those recommendations the Texans fired the coach, but kept the general manager. That tells me that they know they don’t have any glaring personnel problems. If they are smart they will use this anomalously high draft year to give themselves good playoff depth. The picture should become somewhat clearer after some of the teams involved in the top of the draft hire new coaches. In particular whoever hires Mike Martz will be doing themselves a favor if they trade the world and pick up Vince Young. If the Raiders are seriously considering Mike Martz as a head coaching option you have to think he would salivate at the thought of having Randy Moss, Jerry Porter, Lamont Jordan, and Vince Young on the field at the same time.

If it isn’t too early to talk about the draft, there are a couple of things that strike me as kind of interesting. It was only a week or so ago that everybody in the world was referring to the upcoming NFL draft as the Reggie Bush Sweepstakes. After the Rose Bowl we suddenly seem to have about a dozen different opinions on who the top picks will be and Reggie Bush doesn’t necessarily look like a lock to go in the top five even. Marcus Vick’s ignominious entry into the draft has only served to confuse the matter more. It’s early yet, but so far the prognosis is that he could go as early as the top five or as late as the middle of the second round. I’m inclined to think that he is legitimately an early second rounder, but the character issues surrounding him may cancel out any cachet related to his name and drop him even further. Looking at past drafts I can easily see the Cowboys taking a flyer on him as well as the Cardinals, but I really don’t think he has the all around decision making skills that his brother had coming out of school so I don’t think that it’s even a sure thing that he won’t be asked to learn a new position in the NFL. He has the arm strength and the mobility to be an NFL quarterback, but he doesn’t even do a particularly good job of reading college defenses and only has average college accuracy which usually translates into a lot of interceptions in the NFL. The only team I can really see getting excited about him, depending on who else is on the board of course, is the Oakland Raiders. The Raiders could use a mobile quarterback since they are apparently incapable of rebuilding their offensive line into a top unit and with Porter and Moss streaking down the sidelines his questionable accuracy may not be that much of a factor. Pretty much anybody else looking at him will probably see him as a quarterback project and possible punt returner in the meantime. And it doesn’t help his cause that he may not even be the best running quarterback in the draft. I don’t think anybody will be passing up Vince Young if he comes out.

Vince Young’s running ability has a lot of people comparing him to Mike Vick. That isn’t really fair. Vince Young bears a much stronger all around resemblance to another fellow named Young: Steve Young. If you put him in an offense similar to the old 49er’s offense as a rookie he might have some learning pains, but he won’t lose a ton of games for you either. If he decides to stick it out in college one more year Texas automatically becomes the favorite to win the BCS title game again. If he doesn’t, it would take a very odd turn of events for anybody to pass him up for Leinart or Reggie Bush. Leinart is a very good college quarterback, but his arm strength is not quite as good as you might want and he suffers a little bit from the same luxury of speed that has plagued Florida and Miami quarterbacks who try to transition to the NFL. In college these guys have looked like giant killers not because they have the accuracy to complete seventy percent of their passes, but because their receivers are routinely open by ten yards or more. There just aren’t many opportunities to throw the ball through a barn door. Reggie Bush is a great back, but we’ve seen that it is possible in this day and age to get a great running back in the third round. There are a lot of teams that wouldn’t risk the pick on a guy who doesn’t figure to be an every down back. Actually the only person who may have a shot knocking Vince Young out of the top spot is Reggie Bush’s teammate, LenDale White. He made a very good Texas Defensive line look pretty weak on more than just one occasion. It’s rare in college to see atop rated defensive lineman get plowed by even one of the best running backs, but White bulled through two Texas linemen on several occasions. And these are pretty good defensive linemen we’re talking about, potential first-rounders themselves. I can see Houston potentially trading the pick for a boatload of draft picks, but I’m not sure who can afford to make that trade.