Letters From Little Rock

Losing to Alabama is not a sin in Arkansas. Heck, for a lot of years it was all but a habit. Fact is there are a lot of folks in my neck of the woods who have necks in the woods and really couldn’t care about losing a game to a uptown big city team from two states over. On the other hand if they lose to either Mississippi Sate or Ole Miss there will be plenty of people calling for Nutt to be ridden out of town on a rail. There is an interesting rivalry between Arkansas and Mississippi which hinges on the fact that in so many embarrassing statistics they have traditionally been ranked 49th or 50th out of fifty states. Teen pregnancy rates, average SAT scores, drunk driving fatalities, governors that live in mobile homes, you name it; if you can come in last or next to last, Arkansas and Mississippi have been finger pointing for years. I would actually pinpoint the moment the Razorbacks began their decline from respectability to borderline laughingstock to the first game Jack Crowe coached against Ole Miss. He had a veteran quarterback named Quinn Grovey and a fair number of returning starters on defense and lost a close game on a last minute play on the goal line. I can’t recall off the top of my head if it was an interception or if the Arkansas receiver was stopped short of the goal line, but I do recall the astonished look on Grovey’s face when he was asked by a reporter if he thought the better team won. He didn’t quite come out and say that he thought Ole Miss was one step up from division IAA but he meant it. What really rankles some Arkansans is the number of times Ole Miss has beaten the Razorbacks with Arkansas players. Losing to Alabama is not quite a disaster in the minds of Arkansas fans since most of them still think of the Crimson tide as a national powerhouse instead of a team that’s also slowly rebuilding after years of futility. Losing to South Carolina will be no big surprise since they have the Ol’ Ball Coach throwing his visor on their sidelines this year, but losing to Ole Miss at Oxford will have the Razorback Faithful up in arms. I put the odds of Nutt finding himself out of a job standing at about 60-40 right now. My prediction is that following their next game against Louisiana-Monroe (a trap game if ever I’ve seen one) the Razorbacks will continue their history of inconsistency in the SEC with a run of win one/lose one that will be infuriating to Razorback Athletic Director Frank Broyles precisely because it would leave the Hogs once again eking out six wins and playing in a bowl game that they have little hope of winning.

Sat, Oct 15 Auburn 7:00 pm – (Probable win)
Sat, Oct 22 at (7) Georgia TBA – (Expected loss, no big deal)
Sat, Nov 5 South Carolina 2:00 pm – (Possible win)
Sat, Nov 12 at Mississippi TBA – (Red Flag Game, Maybe the last of Nutt’s Razorback career)
Sat, Nov 19 Mississippi State 2:00 pm – (Likely win)
Fri, Nov 25 at (4) LSU 2:30 pm – (Who’s kidding whom?)

One other thing to keep in mind, if Nutt does manage to hold on to his job after the season and they do make it to a bowl game, Frank Broyles has a lot more pull than most people would think. As surprising as it is he is still a heavy hitter in NCAA politics and he can almost always talk the Razorbacks in to a bigger game than they deserve to be playing in. Sometimes that works out, just ask Oklahoma, but other times, like right now, the hogs would be better off not showing potential recruits that they can’t play.

I haven’t heard anything definitive concerning Houston Nutt’s status as head coach of the Arkansas Razorbacks, but I have heard one disturbing quote attributed to Frank Broyles; “Houston Nutt is the right man for the job.” Folks, if you’re Houston Nutt that is roughly equivalent to waking up with a horse’s head in your bed. Despite all the commiseration going on between the two, me, I don’t for a minute buy it. Bottom line is this, if the Razorbacks don’t play well against Alabama this weekend (and by play well I mean win) Houston Nutt is out at the first opportunity. Broyles would prefer to have a new coach in place early enough to get the recruiting started for next year so look for Dennis Erickson and Butch Davis to be two of the most prominent names mentioned since neither one of them is burdened with a job at the moment. Waiting until after the bowl season might be hard on recruiting so don’t expect it to go that long. Broyles was in a similar situation in Ken Hatfield’s last year, the only difference being that Hatfield was fairly popular and quit when a more secure position seemed to be in the offing. At that time Broyles felt it necessary to get a coach in place quickly and called Jack Crowe off of the plane that was scheduled to take him to Clemson along with Hatfield’s other assistants. His tenure was obviously pretty close to a disaster. I think Broyles will prefer to sacrifice this year to a new coach rather than pick someone hastily after January 1st. I say the Razorbacks will still somehow pull off six wins, but it won’t be enough.

Once again Houston Nutt’s Arkansas Razorbacks rolled out their vaunted “red carpet” defense in the face of first rate opposition. I’ve had little patience for Nutt’s act since day one, but I am surprised to see that the tide seems to have turned in the minds of the average Razorback fan. I should qualify this a bit since I am from Mississippi and still have a rooting interest in State and Ole Miss, but having lived in Arkansas over 25 years now, I do have an appreciation for the Hogs. Of course, it mostly derives from admiration for the basketball team under Nolan Richardson before he went off the deep end, but still, it is hard to find a place with more forgiving fans than the UofA. If Nutt was just .500 in bowl games he would be untouchable, but the fans seem to have finally tired of having enough powder puff games scheduled that six wins is almost impossible to avoid and playing in some minor bowl game which the Hogs seem to be inevitably fated to lose. At 2-4 in bowl games Nutt isn’t looking at a great track record, but still he has backed them into bowl games in six out of seven years and his two wins are the only two bowl wins they have had since 1987, a span during which the hogs are 2-12. Overall the University of Arkansas is only 11-20-3 in bowl games since 1934 so the lack of success in bowl games may be more or less endemic and not really something that can be pinned on Nutt, as much as I dislike him.

I think the big problem is that he normally has a soft non-conference schedule to open the season and the big wins over the weak sisters tend to get hopes up in the fan base. If he followed through on that it might be somehow satisfying to the fans, but he rarely does that. His usual M.O. is to put the team in a bad enough position during the middle of the season that they have to win three of four or four of five games to be bowl eligible. A typical “good” Nutt team would be 2002 when they won the SEC West with a 5-3 conference record and lost to Georgia 30-3 in the SEC Championship and followed that with a 29-14 loss to Minnesota in the Music City Bowl. But they had nine wins that season thanks to Boise State, South Florida, Troy State, and Louisiana-Lafayette, not teams that you would find on a real national contender’s schedule.

W 09-07-2002 41 Boise St. (ID) 14 Fayetteville, AR
W 09-14-2002 42 South Florida 3 Little Rock, AR
L 09-28-2002 12 Alabama 30 Fayetteville, AR
L 10-05-2002 38 Tennessee 41 Knoxville, TN
W 10-12-2002 38 Auburn (AL) 17 Auburn, AL
L 10-19-2002 17 Kentucky 29 Fayetteville, AR
W 10-26-2002 48 Mississippi 28 Fayetteville, AR
W 11-02-2002 23 Troy St. (AL) 0 Little Rock, AR
W 11-09-2002 23 South Carolina 0 Columbia, SC
W 11-16-2002 24 Louisiana-Lafayette 17 Fayetteville, AR
W 11-23-2002 26 Mississippi St. 19 Starkville, MS
W 11-29-2002 21 Louisiana St. 20 Little Rock, AR
L 12-07-2002 3 Georgia 30 SEC Championship Game
L 12-30-2002 14 Minnesota 29 Music City Bowl

For the curious here are Nutt’s bowl games:

L 01-01-1999 Florida Citrus Bowl UofA 31 Michigan 45
W 01-01-2000 Cotton Bowl UofA 27 Texas 6
L 12-21-2000 Las Vegas Bowl UofA 14 Nevada-Las Vegas 31
L 01-01-2002 Cotton Bowl UofA 3 Oklahoma 10
L 2-30-2002 Music City Bowl UofA 14 Minnesota 29
W 12-31-2003 Independence Bowl UofA 27 Missouri 14

I think after the shellacking at USC the fans are finally ready for a little more consistency (and an offensive coordinator). This item at fanblogs.com seems to be a pretty good indicator that things are not looking good for Nutt to survive the season unless he shows some kind of improvement against the top teams. Someone has even gone so far as to create www.draftbutchdavis.com. That can’t be a good thing to find if you’re in Nutt’s shoes. It might be too early to tell, but historically, Frank Broyles doesn’t mind showing popular coaches the door. If you don’t believe me ask Lou Holtz, Ken Hatfield, and Nolan Richardson. And he didn’t do much to try to retain Eddie Sutton when Kentucky came calling. And if you happen to be a little bit less than popular, i.e. Jack Crowe, you can get fired after the first game of the seaosn.

Tomorrow’s the big day. Well, not really. Tomorrow is the day our fantasy football league at work is going to hold its draft. I wound up with the first pick which, almost inevitably, is going to be Peyton Manning. I have some doubts about the kind of season the Colts are going to have. I think that they may very well have a better season with less offensive production, but I’m probably in the minority there. The common wisdom is that they have a poor defense, but that is just plain nuts. In the playoffs last year I thin they showed that they have possibly the best secondary outside of New England and Philadelphia. The linebackers are solid and the line was not nearly as bad as people claim. Part of there problem is that they find themselves on the field so much since so many of the Colt’s offensive drives end in sudden touchdowns. I don’t see anyway Peyton equals his production from last year, but I keep asking myself, “how big could the drop off be?” I just can’t see him not being one of the top two or three fantasy players even if his numbers are a little down this year. I am one of those eccentrics who feels that Eli will probably win a Super bowl before Peyton gets there.

The one drawback to picking first in our league is that they have developed a method of minimizing the impact of draft position. Basically you pick 1-8 and then turn around and pick the second round 8-, and so forth and so on. I am pretty excited about the talent that will be there when I pick 16 and 17, but after that it’s a long way to go before I get my fourth and fifth players. Maybe first wasn’t such a great place to land after all.

I read an article today decrying the proliferation of fantasy leagues. Basically the argument seemed to be that it takes the emphasis off of winning and losing and puts it on the individual’s stats. There was more to it than that but that seemed to be the gist of it. I think the fellow missed the mark pretty badly. The fantasy league I’m in has very little to do with devaluing the game. No, it has a lot to do with wandering around at work and dogging out my opponents in a friendly way. That’s really the only reason I play. That and I enjoy the strategy of playing the match-ups. And maybe if I’m lucky I’ll win five bucks off of my boss.

Still, getting a lot of traffic from online gambling sites and I really don’t understand why. I know there are quite a few sports sites that might conceivably link to me and them, but I still don’t quite understand the path they are following. I suppose I don’t really care as long as the folks who are finding there way here from there are finding something to occupy their time once they get here. I’d kind of hate for them to show up at my site expecting to win the lottery or something. Judging from the money I spend and the money I take in I’d say this site is the diametric opposite of winning the lottery. Not that it really costs me much to maintain, I just like to whine.

I have noticed quite a few other links starting to show up from sports related sites, which I guess is a good thing. When I started this blog I never in a million years expected to write so much about sports. In fact I didn’t realize I was such an avid fan until I noticed how much I do write about the NFL and NBA and various college sports. I planned on this site having more of a mix of pop culture and literary topics since that’s the direction my private writing has taken over the last ten years or so. I’ve always read a mix of genre work, classics, contemporary mainstream writers, and various cartoonists of note, and naturally figured that I would be writing a lot of book reviews for this site. Unfortunately the addition of this blog coincided with a promotion at work which I have whined about incessantly in this space so there’s no need to go into it any further here, but the combination of less time to write and a hell of a lot more efficient tool to post my blathering to the web has meant that although I have less time to read the books I would like to I still have plenty of time to waste on the internet. My chief browsing spots on the internet almost invariably lead me back to sports through one route or another. I guess it’s natural that my most frequent topic has become news from the world of sports.

The biggest reason for that of course is that it’s so easy to have an opinion and it doesn’t matter how wrong you turn out to be, we still go back to our favorite columnists just for the sake of argument if nothing else. And in sports arguing is half the fun. Already at work we have several people arguing about the spread of the game between USC and the University of Arkansas. A game which will not be played until September 17 has already been wagered on in our office. I have to admit it sounds like a sucker bet until you hear that the Razorback fan is getting twenty points. I can see the Razorbacks getting monkey stomped in this game, but I can’t see them losing by more than two touchdowns. For one thing I figure they will be playing against the backups by the middle of the third quarter so they have a chance to come back and make the final respectable if nothing else. I also have a sneaking suspicion that they can sneak a win at USC. I know it’s crazy to say it, but under Houston Nutt the mediocre to average Razorbacks have played well over their heads and abilities at the start of the season and USC has not started quickly the last two years. They might not be foolish enough to go into the game thinking it’s in the bag, but I’d certainly take the Razorbacks and twenty points. Of course if they do beat USC they would be odds on favorites to lose by twenty to Alabama the following game. But Arkansas fans are almost used to it by now. When they aren’t dedicating their seasons to convicted drug dealers they are frustrating expectations throughout the SEC.

As a coach i wasn’t too impressed with Terry Bowden, but as a sports columnist he has been a lot more interesting. InTerry’s Preseason Sweet 16 he ranks the teams as though there were a playof system inplace. Sure, it’s just a hook to get some attention and it won’t have too much impact on the NCAA’s governing body, but it is kind of a fun excersise in futility. As he writes more and more columns he seems to be losing his hagiographic tendencies and coming across with more interesting opinions on the state of college football today. I’ve been surprised that I enjoy his column as much as I do.

Is there an AFC dark horse? Now that the Patriots have lost both coordinators and Both of their inside linebackers, I’m not so sure a lot of people won’t be considering them a long shot to make it to the playoffs let alone the Super Bowl, but that’s not quite what I think of as a dark horse. I’m trying to think of a team that will surprise everyone at the start of the year but will have everyone thinking it was obvious how good they were by the end of the season. Kind of like New England the year they one their first Super bowl.

AFC EAST

If they were in a different division I’d say Miami, but they are in what is probably the most competitive division in football at the moment and I think they will need another year to really get their offense back together. They are really still a decent quarterback away from being a legit team year in and year out. The Jets have to be thinking this is their year since New England is allegedly so vulnerable. Between the two of them I don’t see Miami finishing high enough in the standings to get a wildcard spot.

AFC SOUTH

Tennessee is maybe a little less likely to unseat the division champion, but they are much more likely to make it to the playoffs than Miami. I actually think this is as good a team as Tennessee has put on the field in several years and considering their schedule they are in good shape to win ten games if McNair doesn’t break.

AFC NORTH

Cincinnati and Cleveland are both going to improve this season, but neither one impresses me as a playoff possibility this year. Don’t get me wrong; they are both moving in the right direction, but they have a long way to go yet.

AFC WEST

Looking at the West I was struck by how many years I can remember thinking that every team in the division had a chance to finish first or last. I actually think Oakland is going to blow people away this year and quite possibly Kansas City is going to be improved enough on defense to make the playoffs, but that’s not quite going out on a limb far enough to call any of them dark horses.

So what am I left with? Jacksonville. By the end of the season I think the Colts will be feeling the heat from Jacksonville and Tennessee. Jacksonville has a good young quarterback, a better running game than they get credit for and a heck of a defense when they aren’t on the field too long. Not quite an elite defense maybe, but more than good enough to win some games if they get help from their offense. They also have the enigmatic Matt Jones who will either dazzle you or fumble the ball unopposed. Seriously he has as much talent as anybody on the team, but he is in dire need of some coaching. In some ways he reminds me of ayoung Randall Cunningham. If they can get him the football in space, he won’t be caught from behind too often. The other thing about him that people underestimate is his strength. For a receiver he’s a monster. He might be a little light for a blocking tight end, but for a wideout he’s a load.

I just read that Kwame Brown is going to do a sign and trade that will send him from the Washington Wizards to the LA Lakers. I will only say that this is either a deal that will put the Lakers in contention for the NBA championship within a couple of years, or this is the deal that is going to bury Phil Jackson’s legacy. I don’t think just any coach can win with great talent. I think it takes a peculiar type of genius to deal with competitive egotists like Shaquile O’Neal, Michael Jordan, and Larry Bird. I think a lot of coaches can mess this sort of thing up with the greatest of ease. Think about the skills of the Seattle Supersonics or the Portland Trailblazers or the 90’s. Those two teams squandered more talent than any non-championship team I can think of. It isn’t quite the same when you look at the Jazz who only had two great players and never quite enough help off the bench. Those two teams were stacked all the way down to the end of the bench, but could be relied upon to play stupidly at crucial moments. I have a hunch that Phil Jackson might have won six championships with Clyde Drexler as his go to guy and might have gotten a few out of Shawn Kemp. I’m not so sure that Michael Jordan would have won six with Lenny Wilkens or Don Nelson as his coach. That said, Jackson has stepped into a situation that is going to make it very easy for the “anybody can win with Shaq or Jordan” school of naysayers to criticize him if Kwame Brown continues to implode. Obviously he could become a great player, he has the size and skill, he just has to decide it is important enough to him to commit to full time. If he turns out that way, I can see him becoming an all time great running the triangle; if he doesn’t a lot of people are going to think they’ve gotten the last laugh on Phil Jackson. I hope he knows what he’s doing. The Lakers are more fun to hate when they’re good.

I’m rather surprised that Bogut went number one in the NBA Draft. As badly as he was exposed in the NCAA Tournament, I thought he would be regarded as more of a project than a top pick. He proved himself to be a step too slow and too easily rattled by the higher level of competition. His frustration was apparent even in games they won. Against Kentucky he looked extremely average. He did however show that even on an off night he could still score twenty points. For some teams that might be a pretty big plus. What he didn’t show was that he could involve any of his teammates in the offense if he was having an off night; for an NBA player who figures to be more of a Nowitzki type player that isn’t as promising. The sleeper of the draft and the steal of the draft as far as I’m concerned was Channing Frye. He should have been the top pick in this year’s draft and in about six months time I expect he will be receiving a lot of talk as rookie of the year. During the tournament he showed great leadership on a team that had its share of mental problems and very nearly carried them past Illinois. He has McHale like touch and footwork in the post and is probably a better passer. He seems to operate as well from the top of the key as he does from the low post. The Knicks got one over on the league by getting this guy as late as they got him. The only comparable steal was the Celtics getting Gerald Green with the 18th pick. How did that happen? I guess everybody expected him to be gone in the top five and failed to do any research on him and consequently thought it safer to take a pick they had done their homework on. In five years he should be an all star. The big goat of the draft looks to be the Lakers who took a player that doesn’t even have trade potential. On a team that needs immediate help you’d think they would take someone who is potentially capable of playing by the end of the season and giving them a few minutes per game during the playoffs. Looking at this pick they seem to have already written off next season and be building for 2007. If they expect Phil Jackson to be around at that time, maybe that’s a good thing. Even the Lakers have to build for the future at some point. Still this looks pretty inept at the moment.

My track record so far this year has been dismal. The Pistons made a good game of it, but in the end the Spurs had enough determination and depth to push through the fourth quarter and win convincingly. I think they both had a shot at this thing, even though I really anticipated the Pistons would win in four or five games and they lost in seven I didn’t and don’t hate the Spurs. I really thought they would be in a position to make a run for the championship next year, and I still think the Spurs will be in a better position to play for the championship next year. Like wise the Pistons look to me like a solid core that only needs a little more help off the bench and they should get to play for the title two or three more times. Maybe Antoine Walker would be a good fit here as a legit sixth man. If the rumors are true and Paul Pierce is done as a Celtic, he would be a good fit as well. I could see Ron Artest in a Piston’s uniform as well if he can’t work out his problems at Indiana I could see them cutting their losses and trading him while he still has value. If they just add a couple of players they should be able to avoid the late fatigue that plagued them in this series.

The Spurs on the other hand have a complete team and just need to find a way to maintain the status quo. They are a really good blend of players, but they can’t afford to get complacent either. Tim Duncan is still Tim Duncan; even hobbled by bad wheels he maintained the intensity to make the Pistons take him seriously and devote defensive attention to him with double and at times triple teams. At that I don’t see him as the MVP of this series. I’m not sure I wouldn’t have given it to Tony Parker. He had relatively quiet finals as well, but he didn’t make any glaring mistakes and he got the ball where it needed to be at all times. Sometimes just not doing anything bad enough to make the headlines can be a pretty good performance by a point guard, especially against the Pistons’ defense.

All in all this was one of the better finals series in recent years. I really enjoy a team effort in basketball much better than the isolation and one-on-one stuff that was so common during the 90’s. I’d like nothing better than to see these two teams square off again next year. The one team out of the east that I think has a legit shot at it aside from the Pistons is Indiana. In some ways these teams are mirror images o each other. This year the Pacers had to overcome too much just to get to the playoffs; next year they should have their whole team for the entire season. Ron Artest in particular has a lot to make up for and I won’t be surprised to se him have an MVP like season. Of course, he won’t get any consideration for that honor no matter how well he plays, but I expect to see him show up for the whole season with a renewed focus.

The Spurs on the other hand will have to contend with all the usual suspects and probably the Lakers as well. They may be strapped for cash and stuck with the team they have, but I feel confident Phil Jackson will have them in the playoffs again next year. What the Kings and Mavericks are capable of is anybody’s guess. I would figure they will play about as well next year as this, but the Maverick’s in particular are in danger of becoming the Jazz of the new millennium. At some point they have to get over the hump or the Cuban regime is going to go down as one of the sports’ great underachievers.